中东火药桶再爆！美国突袭推升美元 全球屏息待伊朗反制

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, resulting in a stronger U.S. dollar and increased oil prices, while U.S. stock index futures have declined due to heightened risk aversion and concerns over energy supply [1][6][9]. Market Reactions - The dollar has strengthened against the euro and most major currencies in early Asian trading, while oil futures surged, reflecting the market's response to geopolitical risks [1]. - Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen significant declines, indicating a broader sell-off in the cryptocurrency market as investors move towards safer assets [2]. - The S&P 500 index remains only about 3% below its historical high from February, suggesting that the market's overall reaction has been relatively muted despite the ongoing conflict [4]. Oil Market Impact - Brent crude oil futures have jumped 11% to $77 per barrel, with traders preparing for further price increases amid escalating tensions in a region that accounts for one-third of global oil production [6]. - Analysts suggest that if the conflict escalates, oil prices could rise significantly, while a quick resolution might see prices revert to the $60 range [6]. U.S. Dollar Dynamics - The U.S. dollar has risen approximately 0.9% since the conflict began, but this increase is considered limited given the dollar's traditional role as a safe-haven currency [6]. - Market strategists indicate that if the dollar maintains its upward trend, it could enhance the attractiveness of other U.S. assets [7]. Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Investors are weighing multiple factors, including inflation, growth, oil prices, and trade tariffs, as they navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape [8]. - The potential for Iran to respond aggressively, such as by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, remains a critical concern for market participants [5][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the market's response to the conflict may be tempered due to the current accommodative monetary policies and the absence of liquidity bubbles [12]. - The geopolitical situation is expected to create volatility in oil and gold prices, while the core issue remains whether U.S. assets will continue to enjoy a safe-haven premium [15].