中金 • REITs | 租赁住房REITs投资的当下与远方

Core Viewpoint - The rental housing REITs market is experiencing strong demand resilience, with ongoing supply pressures in the short term, driven by urbanization trends and demographic factors [4][10]. Group 1: Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand for rental housing remains robust, supported by net population inflows into major cities and extended rental periods due to delayed marriage and high housing prices [4][8]. - The supply of affordable rental housing is accelerating, with a cumulative construction of 7.27 million units expected by the end of 2024, achieving 84% of the "14th Five-Year Plan" target [4][20]. - The rental market is expected to face short-term supply pressures, particularly in markets with concentrated supply releases, although affordable rental housing is anticipated to outperform the overall rental market [29][30]. Group 2: Evaluating Rental Housing Operational Capability - The operational capability of rental housing can be assessed through asset quality, operational efficiency, and financial metrics [5][45]. - Asset quality considers project location, supply-demand dynamics, and property management capabilities [45][46]. - Operational efficiency focuses on leasing capabilities and tenant management, while financial metrics emphasize cash flow stability [45][49]. Group 3: Outlook for Rental Housing REITs Market Development - The rental housing REITs market is expected to expand through new issuances and capital increases, supported by a substantial stock of rental housing and private fund exit demands [6][52]. - The low-interest-rate environment and "asset scarcity" are likely to sustain the appeal of rental housing REITs as quality investment assets [6][54]. - As of June 18, 2025, the dividend yield for rental housing REITs reached 2.6%, with a narrowing spread compared to the ten-year government bond yield [54][57].