总结与展望 | 行业：稳市场政策持续发力，筑底态势逐步显现（2025H1）

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall stability and gradual recovery of China's economy and real estate market in the first half of 2025, driven by effective macroeconomic policies and a positive shift in supply-demand dynamics [1][2][19]. Economic Performance - The national economy is showing resilience with stable growth in industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment. Industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year from January to May, while retail sales grew by 5.0% [1][2]. - The trade sector also demonstrated strength, with total goods import and export value reaching 179,449 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and exports alone growing by 7.2% [1]. Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate sector is moving towards stabilization, with new home sales area and value showing a year-on-year decline of 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, but remaining stable compared to earlier months [3][19]. - The inventory of unsold homes has decreased for three consecutive months, indicating a positive trend in market activity [3][19]. Policy Support - A series of financial policies were introduced to support the real estate market, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4][19]. - The central government has also initiated urban renewal projects, with 20 cities selected for financial support, aimed at boosting investment and consumption [4][19]. Housing Price Dynamics - Housing prices are stabilizing, with the year-on-year decline in new home prices narrowing. For instance, first-tier cities saw a 1.7% year-on-year decrease, which is a reduction of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [6][8]. - Some second-tier cities, such as Hangzhou and Hefei, have experienced price increases for over three months, indicating localized market strength [6][8]. Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue its recovery trajectory in the second half of 2025, supported by ongoing financial policies and urban renewal initiatives [19]. - The supply structure of new homes is shifting towards higher quality, with fewer new projects but better quality, which is anticipated to stimulate new demand [19].