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银行股:选能涨的,还是选优秀的?
雪球·2025-06-23 07:47

Core Viewpoints - The investment strategy for bank stocks should focus on two main approaches: selecting high-quality banks that can withstand market fluctuations and choosing banks with significant growth potential, particularly those with low valuations that have outperformed in recent years [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The first strategy emphasizes investing in high-quality banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Hangzhou Bank, which offer strong performance and dividend yields, making them resilient during market downturns [2][3]. - The second strategy highlights the importance of selecting banks that have shown substantial price increases, even if they are not considered high-quality, as seen with large banks and rural commercial banks outperforming city commercial banks in recent years [2][3]. Group 2: Market Cycles and Bank Selection - The banking sector has experienced a downward cycle since 2015, with a focus on risk management and bad debt resolution, leading to a preference for banks with strong fundamentals during this period [3][4]. - As the banking sector enters an upward cycle, banks with cleared bad debts and stable net interest margins become more attractive, especially those with previously low valuations [3][4]. Group 3: Current Market Outlook - In a declining market, even high-quality banks may face initial declines, but those with strong fundamentals and cleared bad debts will eventually see their value recognized [4][5]. - The current outlook favors banks that have undergone bad debt cycles and are now positioned for growth, such as Qingdao Bank and Huishang Bank, which are expected to see significant price increases [5][6].