没有恐慌！美国出手打击伊朗，为何全球市场依然淡定？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relatively mild market reaction to the U.S. military action against Iranian nuclear facilities, indicating that investors perceive the conflict as short-term and primarily aimed at deterrence rather than long-term engagement [1][3][4]. Market Reaction - Global financial markets showed a muted response, with the MSCI index down only 0.2% and U.S. stock futures initially declining before recovering [1]. - Traditional safe-haven assets displayed mixed performance, with the Japanese yen down 0.64% against the dollar and gold prices falling by 0.23% to $3,360 per ounce [2]. Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market's calmness stems from optimism regarding the limited scope of the conflict, with many believing that the military action will not escalate into a broader confrontation [4][6]. - Dan Ives from Wedbush noted that the market views the attack as positive news, as it eliminates nuclear threats in the region [5]. Geopolitical Risk Assessment - Experts generally agree that, despite the seriousness of the situation, it does not pose a systemic threat to global markets, maintaining investor confidence [7]. - Peter Boockvar from Bleakley Financial Group emphasized that the outcome depends on Iran's response, suggesting that if Iran accepts the end of its military nuclear program, stability may follow [7]. Oil Price Scenarios - Morgan Stanley outlined three potential scenarios for oil prices post-U.S. military action: 1. If military conflict does not disrupt oil flow, Brent crude could drop to $60 per barrel [15]. 2. A significant reduction in Iranian exports could lead to oil prices trading between $75 and $80 [16]. 3. A broader conflict could risk oil exports in the Gulf, potentially driving prices to levels seen in 2022, around $140 [16]. Long-term Market Outlook - Some analysts maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for U.S. equities, with Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research expressing confidence in the ongoing bull market [17][19]. - Yardeni predicts that the S&P 500 could reach 6,500 points by the end of 2025, citing the potential for fundamental changes in the Middle East following the destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities [19].