【招银研究】逆风前行——2025年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望①

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to show resilience supported by fiscal expansion, but this may lead to higher inflation and interest rates, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy stance [1][2] - China's economy faces both challenges and opportunities due to evolving tariff dynamics, with a projected GDP growth of 5% for the year and a potential decline in the GDP deflator index to -1% [1][2] - The economic environment is characterized by strong supply but weak demand, leading to price pressures [1][2] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is anticipated to shift from acceleration to strengthening, with an expected increase in fiscal tools by 500-1,000 billion yuan to support local finances [2][3] - Monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth [2][3] Group 3: Capital Market Dynamics - The domestic capital market is expected to see a gradual decline in bond yields, while A-shares may stabilize but lack upward momentum [3] - The international market is likely to continue the trend of de-dollarization, with U.S. equities expected to experience volatility [3] Group 4: Economic Predictions - China's GDP growth is forecasted to remain at 5.0% for 2025, with nominal GDP growth projected at 4.0% [4] - Key economic indicators such as retail sales and fixed asset investment are expected to show varied growth rates, with retail sales projected to grow by 4.8% [4] Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategy - Recommendations for asset allocation suggest a focus on A-shares, particularly in consumer and cyclical sectors, while advising against exposure to U.S. equities [5] - Fixed income strategies favor Chinese government bonds, while U.S. dollar-denominated assets are recommended for low allocation [5] Group 6: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S.-China tariff situation has seen a significant reduction, with current tariffs approximately 41% compared to pre-trade war levels [7][8] - Future negotiations may lead to further tariff reductions, but risks of tariff increases remain [12][14] Group 7: U.S. Macroeconomic Conditions - The U.S. economy is experiencing steady growth despite high inflation concerns, with GDP growth projected to be stable [17][18] - Fiscal policies are shifting towards expansion, with a potential fiscal deficit rate above 6% [30] Group 8: De-dollarization Trends - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining attention, with a notable decline in the dollar's share in global reserves from 73% to 58% since 2001 [90] - Factors contributing to this trend include increased competition from non-U.S. currencies and the impact of U.S. financial sanctions [90]