周末老美下场了，市场又开始动荡！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. military action in the Middle East, specifically targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, will not escalate tensions but rather help to bring the ongoing chaos to a quicker resolution [1][2] - The U.S. intervention is seen as a significant negative factor, suggesting that after exhausting their options, both sides will engage in minor skirmishes rather than full-scale conflict [1][2] - Both the U.S. and Israel are currently exhibiting restraint, with the U.S. conducting targeted strikes while avoiding a broader military engagement, indicating a lack of desire for extensive conflict [1][2] Group 2 - Iran's responses have been limited and lack military strength to confront the U.S. and Israel effectively, suggesting that any aggressive actions will likely be symbolic rather than substantial [2][3] - The likelihood of Iran launching a significant attack on U.S. forces is considered low, as their military capabilities are insufficient to escalate the situation further [3][4] - The capital markets reflect this sentiment, with gold prices initially spiking but then declining, indicating that investors are not overly concerned about the conflict escalating [3][4] Group 3 - The performance of the A-share market also mirrors this sentiment, showing resilience despite the geopolitical tensions, which suggests that the market had already priced in the potential for conflict [4][5] - Oil prices did not surge as expected following the U.S. actions, indicating that market participants are not reacting as dramatically to the news as previously anticipated [4][5] - Future movements in oil and gold prices will depend on Iran's actions, but the probability of significant escalation is deemed low, making it risky to invest based on potential short-term spikes [6][7]