半年大涨了30%，接下来还能上车吗？

Group 1 - The core assets that have seen explosive growth in the first half of 2025 are gold, innovative pharmaceuticals, and Pop Mart, with gold rising approximately 30%, innovative pharmaceuticals in A-shares up 20%, and Hong Kong's innovative pharmaceuticals up 50%, while Pop Mart surged 220% [1][2] - All three assets have outperformed market expectations and surpassed 99% of other assets [2] Group 2 - To determine if an asset can continue to rise, it is crucial to assess whether it is a wealth consensus in society [3] - Real estate has historically been the strongest wealth consensus over the past 20 years, leading to significant appreciation and investment returns [5] Group 3 - Innovative pharmaceuticals are seen as a potential growth sector but lack the economic support and transformative impact of real estate or the internet [7] - Pop Mart does not meet the criteria for wealth consensus as it is not widely understood or accepted by the majority of society [8][9] Group 4 - Gold is identified as the only asset among the three that qualifies as a wealth consensus, serving as a reliable safe-haven asset during economic downturns [11][12] - Gold has a limited supply with mining costs between $200-$300, enhancing its asset properties [13] Group 5 - An asset's price increase can be categorized as either value overshooting or value returning to normal; real estate is currently experiencing value overshooting [14][15] - Both gold and innovative pharmaceuticals are viewed as undergoing a value return process [16] Group 6 - The rise in gold prices is attributed to the weakening of the dollar and global economic challenges, while innovative pharmaceuticals are benefiting from previously low valuations and strong performance in the sector [17][18] - The potential for innovative pharmaceuticals to expand into overseas markets could further enhance their value [19] Group 7 - Pop Mart is characterized as a classic case of value overshooting, with a significant price increase in a short period, indicating a likely substantial correction [20] - The sustainability of Pop Mart's IP value requires time and broader societal acceptance to determine if it can achieve long-term recognition [22] Group 8 - Overall, gold is viewed as the most stable asset, followed by innovative pharmaceuticals, while Pop Mart is expected to face a significant correction after its recent surge [23][24] - It is recommended to allocate the majority of funds to stable income-generating assets rather than seeking short-term high returns [25][26]