伊朗或关闭霍尔木兹海峡，油价金价美联储货币政策将受影响｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The military action by the U.S. against Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated geopolitical tensions, leading to proposals from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which has significant implications for global oil and gold prices, as well as potential impacts on U.S. monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Military Action and Immediate Market Reactions - The U.S. military operation, named "Operation Midnight Hammer," involved over 125 aircraft and targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities, resulting in claims of significant destruction by U.S. officials [2]. - Following the announcement of potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, oil prices surged, with WTI crude reaching $78.40 per barrel, the highest since January 20, and Brent crude rising by 5.7% [4]. Group 2: Implications for Oil and Gold Prices - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, accounting for 20%-30% of global oil trade, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil and 90 billion cubic meters of LNG passing through daily [4]. - Predictions suggest that if the Strait is closed, Brent crude prices could spike to $120-$130 per barrel, with long-term forecasts indicating prices could exceed $100 per barrel [4]. - Gold prices also reacted to the heightened risk, with spot gold rising over $3,398 per ounce amid increased market panic [4]. Group 3: Impact on U.S. Monetary Policy - Rising oil prices are expected to elevate global inflation, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation, while also facing pressure to lower rates if the global economy enters recession due to the energy crisis [5]. - The situation presents a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, caught between inflation control and recession risks, with the potential for significant market volatility in the short term and longer-term implications for monetary policy [5].