鲍威尔不当救星、例外主义不再，美股向上靠什么？

Core Viewpoint - The overall market outlook for US stocks is expected to oscillate between a stagnant and declining trend until the end of the third quarter, with potential investment opportunities arising after a significant market correction and the opening of the US debt ceiling [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates during the June 18 meeting, reflecting a hawkish stance on economic outlook despite previous expectations [3][5] - Key updates from the Fed include a downward revision of GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, an upward adjustment of unemployment rates, and an increase in inflation expectations [5][6] - The Fed's projections suggest a stagflation-like economic outlook, with a tolerance for rising unemployment rates while maintaining a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [6][7] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong dollar remains near the weak side of its peg, with liquidity conditions expected to remain ample despite potential tightening in the future [9][11] - The current market environment indicates that even with abundant liquidity, asset selection remains critical, as evidenced by the recent IPO of Haitian Flavoring and Food, which underperformed due to high valuations despite favorable market conditions [11][12] Group 3: Portfolio Performance - The Alpha Dolphin virtual portfolio experienced a decline of 1.3% last week, underperforming compared to the S&P 500 and CSI 300 indices, but outperforming MSCI China and Hang Seng Tech [12][14] - Since its inception, the portfolio has achieved an absolute return of 88%, significantly outperforming MSCI China by 87% [14] Group 4: Individual Stock Contributions - Notable stock performances included Netflix, which rose by 1.6% due to a content partnership, and Pinduoduo, which saw a slight increase of 0.6% amid a competitive retail landscape [16] - Conversely, stocks like Google and Pop Mart faced declines of 4.6% and 12.1%, respectively, due to regulatory pressures and market competition [16]