国泰海通｜金工：量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20250620）——市场下周恐将延续震荡态势

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the upcoming week due to weak market sentiment and technical indicators suggesting a downward trend [1][2]. Market Overview - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 1.23, indicating current market liquidity is 1.23 times higher than the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 1.06, reflecting a growing caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.81% and 1.37%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight fluctuations, with weekly changes of -0.03% and 0.14%, respectively [2]. - Recent economic data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% [2]. - Fixed asset investment for the first five months of the year rose by 3.7% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors showing significant growth [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke below the SAR point on June 19, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - The market score based on the moving average strength index is currently at 102, which is at the 39.7% percentile since 2021 [2]. - The sentiment model scored 1 out of 5, indicating weak market sentiment, while the trend model signal is positive and the weighted model signal is negative [2]. Market Performance - For the week of June 16-20, the SSE 50 index fell by 0.1%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.45%, the CSI 500 index dropped by 1.75%, and the ChiNext index declined by 1.66% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.2 times, which is at the 52.3% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Observations - The crowding degree for small-cap factors has decreased, with a current score of 0.79 for small-cap factors, -0.14 for low valuation factors, -0.11 for high profitability factors, and 0.00 for high profitability growth factors [3]. - The industry crowding degree is relatively high for sectors such as comprehensive, environmental protection, machinery equipment, banking, and non-ferrous metals, with notable increases in banking and medical biotechnology sectors [3].