国泰海通｜批零社服：免税行业：节奏修复中的配置价值——免税行业专题研究

Core Viewpoint - The duty-free industry is witnessing a significant recovery with a narrowing decline in sales and a strong rebound in average transaction value, indicating a new investment window due to the implementation of the closure policy, the rollout of "buy and refund" services, and the context of increased tariffs on imports from the US [1][2]. Group 1: Hainan Duty-Free Market - Sales decline in Hainan's duty-free sector is narrowing, with sales amount showing marginal improvement in the first five months of 2025 [1]. - The average transaction value has turned positive after two years of decline, with February's average price per item reaching a recent high [1]. - The implementation of the closure policy is expected to enhance Hainan's overall attractiveness in consumption, business, and logistics, thereby strengthening the core competitiveness of leading companies as customer flow potential is gradually released [1]. Group 2: Tax Refund and Market Dynamics - The nationwide promotion of the "buy and refund" service starting April 8 is expected to increase the shopping conversion rate for foreign consumers in China [2]. - The duty-free channel has significant price advantages over taxed channels, allowing for substantial market share expansion; for example, duty-free cosmetics can be priced at 70-80% of taxed prices, while wine can be as low as 60% and tobacco at 45% [2]. - The decline in South Korean duty-free sales due to local customer purchasing power and regulatory changes is enhancing Hainan's position as a substitute market [2].