Workflow
马斯克的下一个万亿赛道?瑞银详解Robotaxi商业模式
硬AI·2025-06-23 15:37

Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that if autonomous driving technology matures and receives regulatory approval, Tesla's Robotaxi network in the U.S. could expand to 2.3 million vehicles by 2040, generating annual revenue of $20.3 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Potential - The potential market for Robotaxi is estimated at $20.3 billion by 2040, with a projected after-tax operating profit of up to $86 billion [2][5]. - By 2040, the Tesla Network's Robotaxi fleet may consist of 2.3 million vehicles, with approximately 40% owned by Tesla and 60% contributed by individuals or fleet companies [5][7]. Group 2: Vertical Integration Advantage - Tesla's vertical integration allows it to develop its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, manufacture vehicles, and operate the network, making it the only company that can package "vehicle + software + network platform" together [2][10]. - This structural advantage enables Tesla to benefit from dynamic supply adjustments through its platform, mitigating resource idleness risks during peak and off-peak times [12]. Group 3: Cost Analysis - The average operating cost for Robotaxi is projected to be approximately $0.86 per mile by 2040, with a unit gross margin exceeding 70% at a charging rate of $3 per mile [13][14]. Group 4: Profitability and Valuation - UBS forecasts that the Tesla Network will remain unprofitable until 2027, but will achieve profitability by 2030, with an after-tax operating profit of $8.6 billion and a gross margin of 72% by 2040 [16]. - The valuation for Tesla Network is set at $350 billion, equating to a theoretical share price of $99, while Tesla's current stock price is around $321.87, indicating that the Robotaxi business accounts for approximately 31% of the current valuation [19].