油价重挫超8%，局势趋于缓和！

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have dropped significantly following Iran's missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar, with WTI crude falling by 7.22% to $68.51 per barrel and Brent crude down 7.18% to $71.48 per barrel, marking the lowest points since June 13 [1][4] - The market's initial fears of a supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil passage, have eased as Iran's response was measured and did not threaten major oil supply routes [1][2] - OPEC reported Iran's oil production at 3.3 million barrels per day in May, indicating that Iran's reliance on oil exports, particularly to China, may deter it from taking more aggressive actions [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - RBC's commodity strategist noted that the market perceives Trump's strategy as one of "coercive diplomacy," with the potential for a strategic victory if Iran refrains from further actions [2] - Despite the easing of immediate tensions, the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz remains, as the Iranian parliament has voted in favor of such a measure, which could impact global oil supply significantly [2] - Market sentiment improved with U.S. stock indices rebounding, as investors reassessed geopolitical risks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 374.96 points [4][7] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The current geopolitical situation highlights the complexity of market pricing, where the potential for conflict exists alongside a rational assessment of risks, suggesting that the overall impact on global supply chains may be manageable [7] - Analysts emphasize that while geopolitical risks are rising, the overall energy supply remains ample, which could mitigate the effects of any potential crisis [7] - Concerns about U.S. trade policies and their implications for economic growth are also present, with predictions of a potential recession due to self-inflicted policy damage [8]