特斯拉Robotaxi仅上线了一个“半成品”？

Core Viewpoint - Tesla officially launched its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, on June 22, 2025, with a fixed fare of $4.2 per ride, marking a significant step in its long-term vision for autonomous ride-sharing [1][2]. Group 1: Launch Details - The initial rollout includes approximately 10 refreshed Model Y vehicles, with the anticipated Cybercab not yet available [1]. - The service is currently invitation-only, primarily for tech bloggers and Tesla investors, rather than being open to the general public [1][2]. - The Robotaxi service is not fully autonomous, as a safety driver is present in the passenger seat, and the operational area is limited to the southern part of Austin, running from 6 AM to midnight [2]. Group 2: Market Comparison - Compared to Baidu's "LuoBo Kuaipao" and Waymo's Robotaxi services, Tesla's offering does not present a groundbreaking advancement [2]. - Waymo has completed 10 million rides, while Baidu's service has surpassed 11 million rides as of May 2025, indicating strong competition in the market [2]. Group 3: Technological Advantages - Tesla's Robotaxi utilizes a vision-based, end-to-end model that avoids the high costs associated with lidar sensors, allowing for broader deployment in approved areas [3]. - Elon Musk has criticized other companies' reliance on high-definition maps, suggesting that Tesla's universal solution is more adaptable and scalable [3]. Group 4: Business Model and Profitability - Tesla envisions a business model combining elements of Airbnb and Uber, where it acts as a platform service provider, taking a commission from each Robotaxi ride while the majority of revenue goes to vehicle owners [3]. - For Tesla-owned vehicles, a model similar to Uber's will be implemented [3]. Group 5: Future Market Potential - The profitability of the Robotaxi service hinges on scaling, which is influenced by safety and regulatory approvals [4]. - The market for Robotaxi is expected to grow rapidly over the next decade, with projections indicating that by 2030, the market size in China could reach approximately 500 billion yuan, with a penetration rate exceeding 30% [4]. - Domestic Robotaxi fleet sizes are forecasted to reach 100,000 and 3 million vehicles by 2026 and 2030, respectively, with market share increasing from 0.2% to 75% in the shared mobility sector [4]. Group 6: Market Reaction - Despite the optimistic outlook for the Robotaxi service, the market reaction to Tesla's launch has been muted, with a slight pre-market increase of 0.86% in Tesla's stock price as of June 23, 2025 [4].