【招银研究】海外宏观与策略：韧性与隐忧并存，关注中短美债——2025年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望②

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience and challenges of the global economy, particularly focusing on the U.S. economic outlook, fiscal policies, and market strategies for the second half of 2025, highlighting the interplay between fiscal expansion, interest rates, and inflation pressures [1][4]. Overseas Macro: Resilience and Concerns - The article notes that external demand for China may significantly decline, making internal demand crucial for economic stability, with a projected GDP growth of 5% for the year and a potential drop in the GDP deflator index to -1% [1]. - The U.S. economy is expected to show resilience despite concerns about recession, with fiscal policies remaining expansionary and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts being limited [5][7]. - The article emphasizes the ongoing challenges posed by tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which may hinder the inflation reduction process [5][8]. U.S. Policy: Fiscal Dominance - The U.S. fiscal policy is characterized by a cyclical expansion, with a low unemployment rate of 4.0-4.2% and a high deficit rate of 6-7%, which is about 3 percentage points above historical averages [7][9]. - The article highlights the negative impacts of high interest rates on private sector financing costs, potentially leading to economic inefficiencies and structural imbalances [8][14]. - The ongoing fiscal expansion is expected to exacerbate the U.S. deficit, with projections indicating a deficit of $1.36 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year, a 13% increase from the previous year [9][11]. Monetary Policy: Reactive Rather Than Proactive - The Federal Reserve's stance is described as reactive, with limited room for interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation and a stable labor market [15][21]. - The article indicates that inflation pressures are shifting from internal to external factors, with tariffs being a significant concern for future inflation [25][29]. - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts may lead to a divergence between consumer inflation expectations and financial market predictions [27][29]. U.S. Economic Performance: Behind the Prosperity - The U.S. economy has shown strong performance, with a projected GDP growth rebound to 4% in Q2 2025, driven by a recovery in consumer sentiment and reduced tariff uncertainties [30][33]. - The article notes that while private investment is expanding, it is heavily concentrated in technology sectors, with other sectors facing challenges due to high interest rates [37][41]. - Consumer spending is expected to remain stable, but the underlying financial pressures on households may limit further growth [47][56]. Japan: The Elephant in the Room - Japan's economy is transitioning from deflation to stagflation, with significant challenges to fiscal sustainability and potential risks to global financial markets [61][62]. - The article highlights that Japan's nominal indicators have improved, but actual economic recovery remains weak, with GDP growth at only 1.7% [65][66]. - The potential for rising interest rates in Japan could lead to significant market volatility, impacting global liquidity [75][79]. Overseas Strategy: Favoring Short to Medium-Term U.S. Bonds and Balanced U.S. Equity Allocation - The article suggests maintaining a balanced allocation in U.S. equities, with expectations for a gradual upward trend supported by corporate earnings growth [82][83]. - It recommends holding short to medium-term U.S. bonds while temporarily avoiding long-term bonds due to anticipated high interest rate volatility [88][93]. - The foreign exchange market is expected to see a continued weakening of the U.S. dollar, with non-U.S. currencies gaining strength amid ongoing uncertainties [94][95].