伊朗，何以至此？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic decline and military setbacks of Iran, analyzing the historical and structural factors that have led to its current precarious situation, including the impact of international sanctions and internal governance issues [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Economic Context - Iran's economy experienced significant growth in the 1970s due to oil wealth, with GDP per capita reaching approximately $1,500, but this prosperity was marred by severe inequality and corruption [4][5]. - The concentration of oil revenues among the elite led to widespread discontent, culminating in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which was driven by economic collapse and social injustice [6][9]. - Post-revolution, Iran adopted a closed economic model, nationalizing industries and isolating itself from global markets, which was exacerbated by the Iran-Iraq War, resulting in substantial economic losses [8][10]. Group 2: Recent Economic Developments - The signing of the 2015 nuclear deal initially allowed Iran to increase oil exports to about 2.5 million barrels per day, but the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 led to a drastic reduction in exports, dropping to as low as 350,000 barrels per day by 2020 [15][16]. - The Iranian currency, the rial, depreciated significantly, from approximately 40,000 rials per dollar in 2015 to around 600,000 rials by early 2023, leading to soaring inflation and a sharp decline in living standards [16][17]. - Approximately 35% of the Iranian population now lives below the poverty line, with around 28 million people facing nutritional deficiencies, reflecting a return to conditions reminiscent of the pre-revolution era [16][17]. Group 3: Governance and Social Stability - The Iranian regime maintains stability through a combination of military control, ideological enforcement, and a robust gray economy, which provides alternative means of survival for citizens amid sanctions [22][24]. - The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) plays a crucial role in both military and economic spheres, controlling a significant portion of Iran's economic activities, estimated to be between 20% to 40% [22][23]. - Despite the regime's efforts to suppress dissent, social unrest continues to grow, particularly among the youth, with high unemployment rates and a significant brain drain as educated individuals seek opportunities abroad [19][20]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The article suggests that Iran's economic challenges stem from its heavy reliance on oil and a lack of structural reforms, which have hindered sustainable development and resilience against external shocks [27][28]. - The regime's isolationist foreign policy has further marginalized Iran in the global market, limiting its ability to optimize trade relationships and diversify its economy [27][28]. - For Iran to overcome its current crises, it must implement significant governance reforms, including reducing corruption, enhancing accountability, and fostering economic diversification [29][30].