研客专栏 | 山东地区纯苯调研纪要

Core Viewpoint - The current supply of pure benzene in Shandong is tight, with potential improvement in demand expected in July [1][5]. Supply Analysis - Recent short-term maintenance of HDA units and several reforming units in Shandong has led to a reduction in overall supply [1]. - The high proportion of Iranian oil usage in Shandong may lead to raw material shortages if conflicts escalate, impacting pure benzene production [1]. - The overall storage capacity for pure benzene in Shandong is approximately 70,000 to 100,000 tons, equivalent to 7 to 10 days of production, but hidden inventories are difficult to quantify [1][2]. Demand Analysis - There has been a notable restart of styrene units recently, and significant destocking of caprolactam indicates good demand, which may lead to an increase in pure benzene demand [1]. - Downstream enterprises are maintaining just-in-time purchasing due to significant price fluctuations and low inventory levels [1]. Inventory Insights - The low inventory levels of pure benzene and its nature as a by-product contribute to significant price volatility [1]. - There may be hidden inventory issues this year, with downstream factories holding low stock levels while traders may have more inventory [1]. Market Dynamics - The spot trading of pure benzene in Shandong is primarily based on current market conditions rather than financial attributes, giving strong pricing power to companies with high purity requirements [2]. - The Shandong region accounts for about 14% of the national pure benzene production capacity, significantly influencing price dynamics [5]. Company Insights - Company A primarily procures pure benzene through spot transactions and has a positive outlook for July demand [7]. - Company B has a significant transportation capacity and is exploring futures trading, indicating a proactive approach to market changes [11]. - Company C focuses on just-in-time purchasing and does not plan to participate in the futures market, reflecting a conservative strategy [12]. - Company D actively engages in both paper and futures markets for hedging purposes, indicating a sophisticated financial strategy [15]. - Company E maintains low inventory levels and primarily sells to the Shandong region, with plans for potential expansion in storage capacity [17]. - Company F has overseas contracts for pure benzene and notes that regional pricing is influenced by a few key factories [19]. - Company G participates in futures for hedging and has a comprehensive logistics network, enhancing its market position [20].