著名空头：关税战与第一次世界大战或有相似之处

Core Viewpoint - Billionaire investor Steve Eisman warns that if President Trump’s ongoing tariff stance leads to a full-blown trade war, the global economy could face severe challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Trade War Risks - Eisman identifies tariffs and the potential trade war as the only significant risk currently facing the market, expressing concern over their impact on consumer spending and investor sentiment [2]. - A recent Global Fund Manager Survey indicated that 47% of 222 fund managers view a global recession triggered by trade wars as the biggest "tail risk" for the market [2]. - JPMorgan Research reduced the probability of a U.S. and global recession from 60% to 40%, attributing this to a temporary easing of trade tensions following tariff reductions on China [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - Eisman draws parallels between the current trade environment and the situation before World War I, suggesting that treaties aimed at resolving conflicts can inadvertently lead to larger confrontations [3][4]. - He emphasizes that while no one desires a trade war, the possibility remains due to existing international agreements [4]. Group 3: European Trade Relations - Despite the focus on U.S.-China trade negotiations, Eisman believes that solidifying trade relations with Europe is more significant due to the complexities involved with the EU's 27 member states [5]. - He likens negotiating with the EU to herding cats, highlighting the challenges posed by differing regulations and tax concerns [6]. Group 4: U.S. Negotiation Strategy - Trump has indicated dissatisfaction with the current terms being offered by the EU, suggesting that the U.S. may be overconfident in its negotiating position [7]. - Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross warned that excessive confidence could alienate European allies and complicate negotiations [8].