国泰海通 · 晨报0625｜煤炭、交运

Coal Industry - Coal prices have started to rebound, indicating a bottoming out of the market fundamentals as supply and demand improve since May 2025 [1] - Electricity consumption growth was only 3.1% from January to April 2025, significantly lower than 6.8% in 2024, but has increased to 4.4% in May, leading to a positive shift in thermal power generation [1] - Domestic coal production in May reached 400 million tons, with a notable decrease in imports, which fell by 17.7% year-on-year to 36.04 million tons [1] - The coal industry is expected to see a stable supply-demand balance in the medium term, with prices likely to rise during the summer peak [2] - As of June 20, 2025, the price of coking coal at major ports remained stable, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [3] Aviation Industry - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to see industry-wide profitability in May 2025, driven by a recovery in demand and ticket price increases [5] - Domestic ticket prices turned positive for the first time, with an estimated increase of 4% year-on-year in May, while fuel costs decreased by 19% [6] - Passenger traffic grew by 8% in May, with significant increases during the May Day holiday, indicating strong demand for family travel [6] - The summer travel season is anticipated to be optimistic, with airlines actively managing ticket sales and pricing strategies [8] - The supply of aircraft is expected to remain limited, but demand from family travel will continue to support high passenger volumes during the summer [8]