DDR4价格翻倍？谁在扫货？

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry, particularly the DRAM and NAND markets, is experiencing significant price fluctuations due to supply-demand dynamics and market reactions to manufacturers' announcements regarding product lifecycle changes. DRAM Market Analysis - In Q1 2025, the DRAM market entered a seasonal downturn, with server DDR5 prices dropping by 5% to 8%, and mobile LPDDR4 and LPDDR5 prices decreasing by approximately 10% [1] - The PC DRAM segment also saw a price decline of around 10% [1] - By Q2, the server DRAM market showed limited price decline due to strong demand from the Chinese market and North American companies, resulting in a price stabilization or slight decrease of 2% to 3% [2] - Mobile DRAM prices rebounded by 5% to 10% due to supply constraints as international manufacturers exited the market [2] - The PC DRAM market experienced a price increase of 5% due to heightened inventory purchasing driven by tariff concerns [3] - DDR4, once in oversupply, saw a dramatic price increase after Micron announced its EOL, leading to panic buying and a doubling of prices in the market [4] - By mid-2025, DDR4 prices are expected to peak, with current prices around 130 for DDR4 and 140 for DDR5 [4] NAND Market Analysis - In March, Sandisk announced production cuts and price increases, impacting the market, with Q1 showing many suppliers nearing breakeven [6] - NAND prices for mobile products fell by 3% to 5%, while PC NAND prices increased by 5% to 10% due to inventory buildup [6] - The outlook for Q3 is optimistic, with expected price increases of around 5% for PC and enterprise SSDs, while mobile NAND prices may stabilize or see slight increases [6] - By Q4, NAND prices are anticipated to remain stable, with potential adjustments in enterprise SSD pricing [6] Supply Chain and Demand Dynamics - Tariff concerns have led to increased purchasing activity in the PC segment, particularly among North American users and distributors [7] - The demand for storage servers is growing, driven by companies like Alibaba and Tencent, which are increasing their server procurement significantly [9] - Despite DDR4's declining market share, its absolute demand remains strong due to specific needs in the storage server market [9] - The storage server market is characterized by a mix of SSD and HDD usage, with a ratio of approximately 1:4, and the demand for storage is not solely driven by AI but also by regulatory requirements for data retention [8]