【钢铁】5月国内氧化铝产能利用率降至2023年以来新低——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.6.16-6.22）（王招华等）

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and market dynamics [2]. Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The current price of London gold has decreased by 1.91% compared to last week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early June 2025, the average daily output of key enterprises in crude steel is 2.159 million tons, an increase of 3.25% month-on-month [4] - Price changes this week include rebar at +0.00%, cement price index at -1.21%, rubber at +0.72%, coke at +0.00%, coking coal at -3.11%, and iron ore at -2.07% [4] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tire operating rates have changed by +0.21 percentage points, -5.90 percentage points, -1.8 percentage points, and +4.24 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass have changed by -1.45% and +0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -921 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of flat glass this week is 75.34% [5] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high of 78.29%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.31 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices this week include cold-rolled steel at -0.27%, copper at -0.76%, and aluminum at -0.29%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +4.07%, -18.19%, and +4.71% [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate of domestic alumina in May has dropped to a new low for 2023 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 5.56% [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,700 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with estimated profit at 3,146 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 4.71% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.19 [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 170 yuan/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 210 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [8] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [8] Export Chain - In May 2025, China's PMI new export orders are at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index this week is 1,342.46 points, up 8.00% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 79.40%, down 0.10 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.45%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being shipping at +1.06% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel and industrial metals sectors relative to the CSI 300 is 32.05% and 62.94% respectively [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]