中金 | 新能源运营商观察（1）：成本管控+交易能力打造全新竞争力，进入“负荷为王”时代

Core Viewpoint - The "136 Document" is a landmark policy that promotes the full market entry of renewable energy, leading to increased competition and a shift from a "big pot" model to a competition based on comprehensive strength, where companies' alpha will depend on cost control and market trading capabilities [3][5][20]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The introduction of the "136 Document" is expected to reshape the industry ecosystem, increasing revenue uncertainty for companies [3][5]. - Local governments will balance investment attraction with the energy cost burden on downstream users, potentially leading to a healthier industry development [3][12]. - Power companies are expected to optimize investment structures, focusing on more efficient offshore wind and large-scale bases with controllable price risks [3][16]. Group 2: Consumption Policies - The era of "load is king" has begun, with policies encouraging local consumption and export consumption [4][33]. - The "green electricity direct connection" policy aims to alleviate grid pressure and meet the green energy needs of export-oriented enterprises [4][46]. - The subsidy burden remains significant, with major renewable energy companies facing cash flow and valuation pressures due to high accounts receivable [4][12]. Group 3: Market Mechanisms - The "136 Document" establishes a differentiated pricing mechanism, allowing for a more competitive environment where project returns can vary based on operational and trading capabilities [20][21]. - The mechanism for price settlement will require all projects to participate in market trading, which will influence their final settlement prices [20][21]. - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize over time as market trading becomes more established [3][22]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment focus is shifting towards large-scale wind and solar projects, particularly in desert and coastal areas, which are expected to yield better returns [16][17]. - The development of large-scale projects is anticipated to reduce costs through centralized procurement and management [17][18]. - Offshore wind projects are expected to provide more reliable power supply and better pricing due to their proximity to load centers [18]. Group 5: New Business Models - New operational entities are emerging, with energy storage and virtual power plants becoming more economically viable [19]. - The shift from mandatory energy storage to optional configurations allows companies to optimize their energy storage strategies based on economic assessments [19]. - Virtual power plants are expected to play a crucial role in aggregating resources and providing various adjustment services [19]. Group 6: Regional Market Developments - Regions with advanced market trading are showing signs of price stabilization, while areas with newly initiated trading may face greater price decline risks [3][22]. - The marketization of trading in the "Three North" regions has led to a trading ratio exceeding 80%, indicating a more competitive environment [3][22]. - The average electricity price in regions with high marketization is expected to stabilize, reflecting the competitive dynamics of the market [22][23]. Group 7: Policy Implications - Policies are increasingly focusing on demand-side management to enhance green electricity consumption, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries [44][52]. - The establishment of zero-carbon parks and factories is encouraged to leverage the decarbonization potential of industrial zones [51]. - High-energy industries are being mandated to take on compulsory consumption responsibilities for green electricity, indicating a trend towards stricter regulatory frameworks [52][54].