全市场都在等待再通胀

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the mixed signals from economic data and the varying predictions regarding inflation and consumer demand for 2025. It emphasizes the importance of internal demand and the challenges in achieving a stable inflation environment. Economic Data Analysis - Recent economic data from May shows marginal improvements in areas such as social financing growth, service consumption, and employment, yet the stock market remains indifferent [2] - The persistent weakness in CPI, which recorded a year-on-year decline of -0.1% in June, reflects a broader consensus on the need for consumption-driven economic transformation [3] Inflation Predictions - Analysts have differing views on inflation trends for 2025, with Li Xunlei predicting a continued low CPI of -0.1%, influenced by external factors like export performance and potential tariffs under a new U.S. administration [6][7] - Conversely, Guo Lei forecasts a CPI increase of 1% for 2025, supported by domestic policies aimed at boosting income and consumption [10] - Zhang Yu presents a more cautious outlook, suggesting that CPI could range from 0.4% to 0.7% depending on the economic recovery trajectory [13][14] Internal Demand Challenges - The article highlights the complex nature of internal demand, with Zhang Yu attributing low inflation to a combination of wealth erosion, economic downturn, and weakened expectations [11] - Key factors affecting CPI include core CPI, which may stabilize or recover slightly due to improvements in employment and income, but overall price pressures are expected to remain [12][27] Policy Responses - The article notes that while policies have been introduced to stimulate consumption, there is a consensus among economists that more substantial measures are needed to support vulnerable groups and enhance overall consumer capacity [36][41] - Li Xunlei and Xing Ziqiang advocate for increasing residents' overall income and improving income distribution to stimulate demand [39][40] Market Outlook - The article concludes that the path to achieving inflation and economic recovery in 2025 will depend on the effectiveness of policy measures and the resilience of consumer demand in the face of ongoing economic challenges [42]