高盛：美元还要跌

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline of the US dollar in the first half of 2025 is attributed to various factors, including increased currency hedging by foreign investors and uncertainty stemming from US policies, particularly those of President Trump [1][3][4]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped over 8% year-to-date, marking the worst annual start on record [1]. - The ICE Dollar Index has also seen a decline of approximately 9%, potentially leading to its worst performance in at least 37 years [1]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Richard Chambers from Goldman Sachs anticipates a continued weakening of the dollar, with foreign investors increasing their currency hedging due to heightened volatility [3]. - Foreign demand for US securities, which has doubled over the past decade to $31 trillion, is expected to weaken as European investors may prefer local markets [3][4]. Group 3: Currency Swap Indicators - Recent changes in cross-currency basis swaps indicate a declining preference for the dollar, with increased demand for currencies like the euro and yen [6]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs note that the willingness to purchase dollar-denominated assets is decreasing, contrasting with historical trends where the dollar was favored during times of market uncertainty [6][7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The cross-currency basis swap is crucial as it sets the long-term pricing for foreign exchange hedging and indicates shifts in asset flows between economies [6]. - Guneet Dhingra from BNP Paribas highlights significant cross-border capital movements, particularly from the US to Europe, suggesting a potential shift in investment strategies [7].