债王格罗斯：美股将迎来“小牛市”，而美债则是“小熊市”

Group 1 - Bill Gross warns of a "mini bear market" in the U.S. bond market, with the 10-year Treasury yield unlikely to fall below 4.25% [1][5] - He predicts that the stock market will experience a "mini bull market" driven by AI, despite challenges such as tariffs and geopolitical tensions, with economic growth expected to reach 1-2% [1][5] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 3% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq 100 index has increased by more than 5%, reaching a historical high recently [1][3] Group 2 - Gross believes there is insufficient reason for a significant decline in interest rates from current levels, based on historical trends [4][5] - He notes that the 10-year yield typically exceeds the consumer price index by 1.75 percentage points, currently hovering around 4.3% [5] - Factors such as surging fiscal deficits and a weakening dollar are expected to increase inflation, posing challenges for the U.S. bond market [5][6] Group 3 - Gross expresses a cautious outlook, stating that the movements in both the stock and bond markets will not be overly dramatic [6][7] - His latest views reflect a relatively moderate expectation for market prospects compared to his earlier stance in April, where he advised investors to remain cautious during tariff-induced market volatility [5][7]