高工锂电·2025-06-25 11:48Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has extended its temporary export ban on cobalt raw materials by three months, raising concerns about global supply shortages and significantly increasing prices [1][2] - The ban, initially set for four months, will now last for seven months, aiming to stabilize prices above 200,000 RMB per ton, a target that has already been achieved [2] - The DRC accounts for over 70% of global cobalt production, and the extended export ban is expected to impact over 100,000 metric tons of cobalt supply this year [2][3] Group 2 - Chinese buyers will face a period of accelerated consumption of existing inventory until the first batch of cobalt raw materials arrives, which is expected no earlier than late December [3] - Current assessments indicate that China's cobalt inventory can sustain consumption for about four months, while other supply sources are insufficient to fill the gap [3] - The demand for cobalt will be a critical factor influencing future price trends, especially as the penetration rate of cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeds 80% in the power battery sector [3][4] Group 3 - As the September deadline approaches, market focus is shifting to the DRC's next policy steps, with uncertainty surrounding potential extensions of the ban or the introduction of a quota management system [4] - Concerns exist that an unfair or poorly enforced quota system could lead to hoarding and large-scale arbitrage, potentially driving cobalt prices to new highs [4]