热点思考 | 封锁“霍尔木兹”，不可信的承诺？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting that while the feasibility is high, economic constraints and pressure from Gulf countries may limit this possibility [3][13][77] - Following the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran on June 24, market concerns regarding the blockade have significantly decreased, with the implied probability of Iran blocking the Strait dropping from 53% to 17% [3][20][77] - Historical data shows that Iran's threats to block the Strait have typically resulted in short-term price increases for oil, with significant supply disruptions potentially pushing prices above $130 per barrel if a blockade were to occur [4][28][47] Group 2 - The article outlines that approximately 20% of global oil consumption is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, and a blockade could create a supply gap of 8.56 million barrels per day, even with alternative pipeline routes [4][37][47] - The impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation is discussed, indicating that a $10 per barrel change in oil prices could affect the annual CPI inflation by about 0.2 percentage points in the U.S. [5][51][78] - The relationship between rising oil prices and the U.S. dollar is explored, suggesting that a significant increase in oil prices could strengthen the dollar, as it has historically shown a correlation with oil price movements [5][61][78] Group 3 - The article notes that the influence of rising oil prices on gold prices is ambiguous, as increases in oil prices can lead to higher inflation expectations while also pushing nominal interest rates up, creating conflicting effects on gold [6][68][78] - Historical analysis indicates that during previous oil supply shocks, gold prices have reacted variably, often driven by geopolitical tensions rather than oil price movements alone [6][68][78]