全球能源市场的咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡，并非不可绕行

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the temporary ceasefire between Israel and Iran, highlighting the geopolitical implications for global energy trade, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil and gas transportation [1][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been established, with both sides declaring their positions, which may influence regional stability and energy markets [1]. - The Strait of Hormuz remains a significant concern for shipping due to ongoing security risks, despite current operations being uninterrupted [2]. Group 2: Energy Trade Importance - Approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, accounting for 20% of global liquid oil consumption and 25% of maritime oil trade [3]. - In addition to oil, about 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade also transits through the Strait, primarily from Qatar [4]. Group 3: Potential Market Impact - A complete blockade of the Strait could lead to oil prices soaring above $120 per barrel, representing a 56% increase from current Brent crude prices [4]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Saudi Arabia and the UAE can divert 2.6 million barrels of oil daily through alternative pipelines, mitigating some impacts of a potential blockade [10]. Group 4: Alternative Routes - Saudi Aramco operates a pipeline that connects the Abqaiq oil processing center to the Red Sea, providing an alternative route for oil exports [8]. - The UAE has a pipeline that bypasses the Strait, linking land oil fields to the Fujairah export terminal, further diversifying export options [9]. Group 5: Iranian Export Dynamics - Iran's oil exports heavily rely on the Strait, with an average of 1.5 million barrels per day last year, most of which were transported through this route [12]. - Iran has a pipeline with a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day to Oman, but actual usage is significantly lower, with exports expected to be below 70,000 barrels per day by summer 2024 [11]. Group 6: Risk Assessment - Analysts believe the likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait is low, as it would severely damage its economy and provoke a strong U.S. response [13][14]. - Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst, suggests that any aggressive action by Iran could lead to its perception as a dangerous adversary, prompting military intervention from Western nations [15].