【广发资产研究】地缘冲突缓和，风险资产修复——全球大类资产追踪双周报（6月第二期）

Global Asset Performance and Macro Trading Themes - Global major asset classes experienced a broad rally from June 16 to June 24, with risk assets represented by equities showing significant recovery [4][12] - The ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel on June 24 positively impacted market sentiment, leading to a notable rebound in global risk assets, while safe-haven assets like gold retreated [4][13] Asset Allocation - Global Barbell Strategy - Long-term investors need to deeply interpret the direction of the reshaping world order and weigh the cost-effectiveness of various assets, while paying attention to asymmetric pricing risks in their portfolios [5][17] - The new paradigm is reinforced by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry, with the strategic focus remaining on the all-weather adjustment of the "global barbell strategy" [5][18] - A statistical analysis of historical U.S. recession trading intervals revealed the volatility amplification factors for various assets, with the ranking being: Nasdaq > India SENSEX30 > Hang Seng Tech > U.S. Treasuries > Gold > Chinese Bonds > Bitcoin > National Bond Convertible Bonds > A-share Dividends [5][18] - Adjustments to asset allocation based on revised volatility factors indicate an increase in weight for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing weight for Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [5][18] Focus Data: Global Economic Data and Event Calendar - The economic data calendar from June 30 to July 13 includes significant indicators such as China's official manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 49.5, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 48.5 [20] - Other important data points include the unemployment rate in Germany and the Eurozone CPI for June, with the latter expected to be 1.9% [20]