深度专题 | 新“三万亿”投资会在哪？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant investment opportunities in the service industry, highlighting a potential investment gap of approximately 3.3 trillion yuan due to the disparity between actual and potential service consumption [2][10]. Group 1: Demand Increment "Blue Ocean" - The current service industry investment has a potential gap of 3.3 trillion yuan, with a projected shortfall in per capita service consumption of 2,093 yuan in 2024, translating to nearly 30 trillion yuan nationwide [2][10]. - The decline in consumer time due to "involution" is a short-term constraint on service consumption recovery, but policies encouraging paid leave and flexible work arrangements are expected to mitigate this trend [2][3][33]. Group 2: International Experience in Demand-Driven Supply - Global experiences indicate that as consumer preferences shift from goods to services, a positive feedback loop is created, driving supply and investment growth [4][68]. - In Japan, service industry investment surged after entering an aging society, with service investment as a percentage of total investment rising to 11.6% when GDP reached 20,000 USD [4][90]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Specific Areas - The demand for household services, particularly in the domestic service sector, is on the rise, with significant investment potential in areas like housekeeping and elderly care [5][96]. - The service industry in China is currently more focused on corporate services, with a low proportion of value added from lifestyle services, indicating a need for greater attention to consumer demand [7][128]. - The effective supply of services in sectors like health and entertainment has been insufficient, leading to a significant gap between supply and demand [8][141]. Group 4: Future Investment Trends - The service industry is expected to see accelerated investment growth as private investment shifts from manufacturing to services, with notable increases in sectors like health and entertainment [8][158]. - The article suggests that the aging population will drive demand for "age-friendly" services, creating further investment opportunities in related sectors [6][113].