国内高频 | 集运价格连续上涨（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current state of industrial production, construction activity, and price trends in China, indicating a seasonal slowdown in industrial production, weak infrastructure construction, and a rebound in port cargo volumes, alongside fluctuating agricultural and industrial prices [2][48]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production is showing signs of seasonal weakness, with a slight decrease in blast furnace operating rates, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 1.0% [2][48]. - Midstream production is mixed, with soda ash and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -3.0% and 3.8%, respectively, while PTA operating rates decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.0% [2][48]. - The construction industry is experiencing overall weak activity, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates down 3.6 percentage points to -4.6% and 0.2 percentage points to -4.2%, respectively [2][48]. Group 2: Demand Trends - Port cargo volumes have rebounded, with cargo throughput and container throughput increasing by 5.7 percentage points to 3.6% and 4.1 percentage points to 5.3% year-on-year, respectively [2][48]. - The average daily transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities has significantly declined, down 13.9 percentage points to -5.1%, with first-tier cities experiencing a larger drop of 38.3 percentage points to -14.2% [2][48]. Group 3: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with significant drops in egg, fruit, and pork prices, down 1.5%, 1.3%, and 0.4% respectively [3][49]. - Conversely, industrial product prices have shown an increase, with the South China industrial price index rising by 3.1% week-on-week, and the energy and chemical price index increasing by 5.6% [3][49].