我认为小米YU7只有50%概率可以稳态2.8万+, 交给时间验证

Core Viewpoints - The company believes there is a 50% probability that YU7 will stabilize below 28,000 units and a 50% probability that it will stabilize above 28,000 units, with future stabilization potentially below 20,000 or above 40,000 units [1][7] - YU7 has significant product highlights, but if autonomous driving arrives quickly, the product definitions of SU7/YU7 may not remain classic, with the ideal of range-extending/pure electric becoming the new standard [1][5] - The current state of Xiaomi's YU7 is similar to the state of Li Auto's MEGA prior to its launch in March 2024, but YU7's sales are unlikely to reach the planned 8,000 units, as it has struggled to exceed 1,000 units for seven consecutive months [1][6] Detailed Analysis - The 28,000 unit figure is based on SU7's sales from March to May 2025, where SU7 delivered over 28,000 units for three consecutive months. Optimistic market views on YU7 sales are based on the historical performance of SUVs over sedans in China and comparisons to the sales ratio of Model Y to Model 3 [2][6] - TOP2 believes YU7 has a 50% chance of not surpassing SU7's peak sales. SU7's core product values include aesthetics, handling, and emotional value, with SU7's design being superior to any other model under 500,000. YU7's aesthetic appeal compared to SU7 is uncertain, but generally, SUV designs are less appealing than SU7 [3][4] - SU7's emotional value is enhanced by its design and association with the "Dream Car" concept, which may not be as strong for YU7. The perception of SU7 as a desirable vehicle is reinforced by its performance and brand association, while YU7 may not evoke the same emotional response [4][5] - If the autonomous driving era arrives quickly, larger space and comfort will become the primary product definitions, overshadowing aesthetics and handling. The design philosophy will evolve to prioritize functionality over form, as seen in the shift from traditional combustion engine aesthetics to modern electric vehicle designs [5][6] - There are seven similarities between YU7's current state and MEGA's pre-launch status, including strong internal confidence, a belief in a potential market shift, and recent safety incidents affecting public perception. Both companies have experienced significant market valuation fluctuations leading up to their respective launches [6][7] - Unlike MEGA, which faced a challenging launch environment, YU7 is expected to avoid similar pitfalls due to lessons learned from past experiences and proactive measures taken by Xiaomi to manage public perception [7][8]