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HBM放量在即，美光能否乘胜追击？
海豚投研·2025-06-26 01:27

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology reported strong financial performance for Q3 FY2025, with revenue of $9.3 billion, exceeding market expectations, driven by increased NAND shipments and HBM growth [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Overall revenue for the quarter was $9.3 billion, a 15.5% increase quarter-over-quarter, surpassing market expectations of $8.85 billion [1][2] - DRAM revenue reached $7.07 billion, also up 15.5% quarter-over-quarter, despite a 4% decline in average selling price [1][2] - NAND revenue was $2.16 billion, reflecting a 16.2% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a 7% decline in average selling price but a 25% increase in shipment volume [1][2] Operating Expenses - Core operating profit was $2.17 billion, a 22% increase quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin recovery to 37.7% due to improved product mix and cost management [2][3] Future Guidance - For Q4 FY2025, Micron expects revenue between $10.4 billion and $11 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 40%-42%, both above market expectations [2][3] - The anticipated growth is primarily attributed to HBM expansion and price increases in traditional product lines [2] HBM Business Insights - Micron's HBM revenue is projected to reach approximately $7-8 billion in 2025, with a significant increase expected in the second half of the year [5][6] - The company is currently ramping up production of HBM3E 12-high, which has already been integrated into NVIDIA's GB300 [4][5] Market Dynamics - The performance of Micron's stock is closely tied to the success of its HBM products and the overall demand in the AI hardware market [5][7] - Recent increases in DDR product prices are driven by supply concerns, but overall demand remains subdued [7][8] Long-term Outlook - Micron is expected to experience a compound annual growth rate of 16.5% in profits from FY2025 to FY2029, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 11-12 times for FY2026 [8] - The company’s valuation appears reasonable, reflecting expectations for HBM growth and potential performance in the AI sector [8]