加强宏观政策逆周期调节，尽快扭转市场引导的总量失衡｜政策与监管

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth process is closely linked to the balance between total supply and total demand, and deviations from a reasonable growth rate can lead to macroeconomic imbalances, such as inflation or recession [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Imbalance - Economic growth that deviates from a reasonable range can result in macroeconomic imbalances, with excessive growth leading to supply shortages and inflation, while insufficient growth results in oversupply and deflation [2][3]. - Market mechanisms can exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, necessitating government intervention through scientific macroeconomic regulation to address these issues [3]. Group 2: Reasonable Economic Growth Range - The reasonable economic growth range is determined by the stage of economic development and the potential for supply growth, influenced by structural changes in the economy [5]. - China's modernization path differs significantly from Western models, requiring a unique assessment of its economic development stage [5]. Group 3: Historical Context of Modernization - China's modernization began with a low starting point in terms of per capita GDP, significantly lower than that of Western countries during their modernization phases [6]. - The initial phase of modernization in China was characterized by a lack of capital, necessitating a focus on agriculture and light industry rather than rapid industrialization [8][9]. Group 4: Role of Government and Planning - The Chinese Communist Party's leadership and the socialist system were crucial in overcoming initial capital shortages and income distribution issues, enabling rapid industrialization [10]. - The planned allocation of resources allowed for the concentration of efforts on heavy industry, facilitating the establishment of a comprehensive industrial manufacturing system [10]. Group 5: Economic Structure and Growth Potential - By 1978, the industrial value added to GDP had significantly increased, but structural imbalances persisted, particularly between heavy and light industries and between industrialization and urbanization [11]. - Addressing these structural contradictions is essential for continued modernization and economic growth, with significant potential for improvement in living standards and urbanization [12]. Group 6: Current Economic Challenges - Current economic challenges include income distribution disparities, with a Gini coefficient of 0.465 in 2023, indicating significant inequality [13]. - Despite reaching a per capita GDP of $13,000 in 2024, a substantial portion of the population still earns below the poverty line, highlighting the need for sustained economic growth to achieve common prosperity [13]. Group 7: Structural Change Potential - The potential for structural changes in income distribution, urban-rural dynamics, and regional economic disparities remains significant, necessitating a tailored approach to economic policy that considers China's unique modernization path [14]. - The analysis emphasizes that China's economic growth trajectory cannot be directly compared to Western models, as its development context and characteristics differ fundamentally [14]. Group 8: Supply Growth Potential - Assessing the current stage of China's economic development requires an analysis of supply growth potential, which is influenced by existing industrial systems and resource conditions [15]. - China possesses a comprehensive industrial manufacturing system, with production capabilities across a wide range of industries, positioning it as a global leader in industrial output [15].