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摩尔投研精选·2025-06-26 11:02

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the A-share market is driven by the strong performance of the brokerage sector, particularly following a significant announcement from Guotai Junan International regarding its approval to provide virtual asset trading services, marking a pivotal moment for the brokerage industry and the broader financial sector [7][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced volatility, with the three major indices initially rising but ultimately closing lower due to reduced trading volume and insufficient capital support [1]. - The brokerage sector saw a decline, while bank stocks surged, with several banks reaching historical highs [1]. - Guotai Junan International's stock price soared by 19.8% in response to its new virtual asset trading license, reflecting strong market optimism towards traditional finance's entry into the virtual asset space [10]. Group 2: Mid-Year Earnings Season - The mid-year earnings season is beginning, with market attention shifting towards companies' performance reports, particularly those showing strong growth [12][17]. - Shenghong Technology's stock price increased significantly, with a 16% rise on June 5, leading to a total market capitalization exceeding 110 billion yuan and a dynamic P/E ratio of 59.42 [13]. - Historical trends indicate that the mid-year earnings season typically starts in June, with the potential for significant market movements based on earnings forecasts [14][20]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies with dual growth in earnings (both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter) are prioritized for investment, as they are more likely to attract market speculation [23][24]. - Shenghong Technology is highlighted as a prime example of a dual-growth company, with expected net profits for the first half of 2025 exceeding 2.111 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of over 360% [25]. - The focus is on sectors with low competition and strong earnings expectations, such as the North American AI hardware supply chain, storage chips, and wind power equipment [30][32]. Group 4: Short-term Catalysts - Two key short-term catalysts are identified: the AI glasses supply chain and advancements in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries [36][37].