风险月报 | 不确定性交织带来情绪与预期的折返跑

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with a slight recovery in risk scores, driven by policy support and economic recovery expectations, but still facing global uncertainties and internal structural divergences [2][5]. Group 1: Market Risk Assessment - The risk score for the CSI 300 index increased to 45.39 from 42.04, indicating a moderate low-risk level [2]. - The valuation of the CSI 300 rose to 46.58 from 43.53, reflecting a reassessment of economic recovery and corporate profit expectations [2]. - There is significant valuation divergence among industries, with sectors like steel and real estate above the historical 60th percentile, while others like agriculture and non-bank financials are below the 10th percentile [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Market sentiment improved to 42.89 from 34.07, indicating increased trading activity but remaining in a cautious zone [3]. - The public fund issuance score rebounded to a historical medium level, suggesting a recovery in retail fund inflows [3]. - Market expectations declined to 48.00 from 55.00, with analysts noting that economic growth still requires policy support and expressing concerns over the impact of U.S. tariff policies on domestic manufacturing investment [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Data Insights - May economic data showed a decline in supply and a divergence in demand, with retail sales growth reaching a year-to-date high of 6.4%, supported by old-for-new subsidies [9]. - Fixed asset investment, infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investment all saw declines, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 10.4%, -10.7%, and 8.5% [9]. - The industrial output growth rate slowed to 5.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from April, indicating a cooling in industrial activity [9]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Risk Points - The black commodity sector's risk score is at 38.8, categorized as low risk, with stable production and declining demand entering the off-season [12]. - Potential risks for the real estate sector include recovery exceeding expectations and geopolitical tensions affecting market stability [14][18].