全市场都在等待再通胀

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the challenges of low inflation and the need for effective policy measures to stimulate demand and support economic recovery [4][6][41]. Economic Data Analysis - Recent economic data from May shows marginal improvements in areas such as social financing growth, service consumption, and employment, yet the capital market remains indifferent [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is reported at -0.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent deflationary pressures [6]. Inflation Expectations - Analysts have differing views on inflation trends for 2025, with some predicting continued low CPI due to weak external demand and potential tariff impacts from U.S. policies [11][12]. - Others argue that global inflationary pressures and domestic policy support could lead to a CPI increase of around 1% in 2025 [15]. Internal Demand Challenges - The article emphasizes the complexity of internal demand issues, with analysts noting that low inflation reflects a combination of wealth erosion, economic downturn, and weakened expectations [17]. - Key factors influencing CPI include core CPI, employment, and consumer spending, with predictions ranging from a slight recovery to continued low inflation depending on economic conditions [19][32]. Policy Responses - The article discusses the need for comprehensive policy measures to address the economic challenges, including support for vulnerable groups and improving overall income distribution [41][43]. - Analysts suggest that relying solely on short-term measures like subsidies may not be sufficient to drive sustainable consumption growth [41]. Market Outlook - The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, with analysts divided on the potential for economic recovery and inflation resurgence, emphasizing the importance of consumer demand in achieving a stable economic environment [45][46].