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二十年后,大众点评还在坚持打地基
远川研究所· 2025-11-14 04:10
然而四通八达的现代生活中,还有一个领域在经受"最后一公里"的困扰,那就是本地生活的到店场景。 很难想象,2025年人类已经登上月球背面,和AI你侬我侬,但低头回到一日三餐,依然有一个问题难以 回答: 今天想吃的这家餐厅,它到底有没有在营业? 本地生活硝烟四起的这一年,各路选手带着令人眼花缭乱的服务和榜单杀入赛场。而场上最大的玩家大 众点评,却始终坚持"本真",二十年如一日默默解决那个最朴实又最重要的问题: 准确映射物理现实。 11月5日,大众点评宣布了一项重磅计划:未来5年将追加至少30亿资金,用于升级"本地生活信息基 建"。 所谓信息基建,用大白话来说,就是当你想吃一家餐厅,你能从大众点评上准确找到包括但不限于以下 问题的实时动态更新答案: 它在哪?怎么去?几点开门?能不能订座?哪些菜好吃?能不能停车?有没有插座?…….. 数十年过去,互联网跨越时空,集成电路产业日新月异,但人类靠双脚丈量生活的方式依然不过时。 被电商和外卖补贴带大的这一届消费者,多少听说过 "最后一公里" 这个概念,它指从配送点到最终消 费者手中的末端环节。 只不过当纸页上的油墨印变成手机屏里的"附近推荐",数字世界尽头"最后一公里"里掺 ...
百度拿到了赛点
远川研究所· 2025-11-13 13:29
华尔街对AI泡沫之争尚未有定论,巨头们已经马不停蹄地赶往下一个战场。 当AI军备竞赛进入对峙阶段,上至自研芯片、框架协议,下至工具平台、软硬件应用,各家真枪实弹、武装到了牙齿,实力排位,产业内外已有计较,下一轮竞 赛的核心命题开始浮出水面。 红杉资本说,真正的竞争并不在于用AI做事,而在于构建自主涌现价值的生态系统[1]。 也就是说,让AI真正融入到产品、业务与组织架构中,不是作为工具锦上添花,而是作为企业的筋脉和血肉,成为产品生长的土壤、业务增长的飞轮。 百度李彦宏用"内化"来解释这个过程: 当AI能力被内化,成为一种原生的能力,智能就不再是成本,而是生产力。能够帮助提升决策质量、发现新的增长点,让成本更低、利润率更高、创新周期更 短,能增强每个人的能力和创造力。 当AI融入日常工作被写入硅谷巨头的备忘录和员工手册,当更多企业开始在意如何将AI与每一个业务流程有机结合,AI竞争的下一阶段主线已逐步清晰:内化与 原生。 在刚刚结束的百度世界2025大会上,百度全面展示了其焕然一新的AI业务矩阵,核心产品的深度重构,萝卜快跑、伐谋、"秒哒"等AI原生产品的商业化加速,都 在身体力行地实践着AI的内化与原生。 这 ...
ETF一哥不止于指数
远川研究所· 2025-11-13 13:29
以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ,作者沈晖 远川投资评论 . 贝莱德一边扩充系统化主动权益投资团队 SAE 的阵营,一边把主动投资版图覆盖到股票、固收、 REITs 、房地产等多元资产,还回到最初的起点,捡起了私募股权 " 老本行 " 。 无独有偶,华夏主动权益基金迎来爆发。屠环宇和施知序合管的华夏数字产业混合,顾鑫峰管理的华夏 北交所精选两年定开,近 1 年走出翻倍收益,杨宇二季度及时布局了电力设备,托起了网红基金华夏能 源革新的净值,华夏清洁能源龙头近 1 个月涨幅跃居同类第一。 看更好的资管内容 在资产管理的世界,有两座难以逾越的高峰 —— 一座是伯克希尔 · 哈撒韦,另一座是贝莱德。 在外界看来,他们分属主动投资、被动投资两座山头。而国内,华夏基金常与 " 中国贝莱德 " 联系到一 起。 2009 年,贝莱德收购巴克莱 iShare 指数基金业务,蹭上了全球 ETF 狂飙的时代红利,如今 ETF 规模 超过 5 万亿美元,是世界 ETF 一哥;华夏基金早在 2004 年发行境内第一只 ETF ,直到 2018 年李一梅 挂帅后, ETF 业务扶摇直上,截至今年三季度,华夏 ETF 管理规模达到 9035. ...
老登审美席卷新能源车
远川研究所· 2025-11-11 13:07
远川科技评论 . 刻画这个时代(的前沿科技) 以下文章来源于远川科技评论 ,作者徐珊珊 多年后,拥抱老登审美也成了中国新能源车企的团建项目: 典型代表是"杭州湾库里南" 极氪9X ,进气格栅的镀铬饰板高调不失庄重。座舱内部北欧进口实木饰板配合水晶旋 钮,充分拿捏了old money豪华设计语言的精髓。 福特Mach-Eau香水 岚图泰山 硬朗的燃油车SUV设计带头,迈巴赫同款大饼轮毂、全真皮菱格纹座椅、天然实木饰板组团参战,搭配上水晶旋钮和 星空顶,建议是中控台激光雕刻"家和万事兴",选配项增设一面"天道酬勤"牌匾。 老登标配:大饼轮毂 2021年,福特为旗下电动车型 Mustang Mach-E 车主开发了一款香水 Mach-Eau ,此香水主打汽油味,并融合金属、 烟熏、橡胶等元素,让车主坐在新能源汽车里,也能品味旧能源汽车的韵味。 这款香水立项源自福特内部的一项调查[1],大部分电动车主都是人在曹营心在汉,或多或少都会怀念汽油车味道。于 是福特送佛送到西,为老登车主设计了加油枪造型的汽油香水。 AMG被奔驰收购前,同样以发动机排量作为产品命名的基础。第一款改装车"红猪"的原型是 奔驰300SEL 6.3 ...
电动车还要“反人类”多久?
远川研究所· 2025-11-10 13:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and challenges of electric vehicles (EVs), highlighting the shift from traditional mechanical components to modern design elements like glass roofs, touchscreens, and hidden door handles, while raising concerns about safety and usability [3][5][26]. Group 1: Evolution of Electric Vehicles - The introduction of the Tesla Model S in 2012 marked a significant turning point in the electric vehicle industry, being recognized as a groundbreaking invention [8][10]. - Tesla's design philosophy aimed to eliminate mechanical components in favor of a sleek, minimalist aesthetic, which has influenced many automakers [9][12]. - The trend of integrating large touchscreens and hidden door handles has become prevalent, often at the expense of user-friendliness and safety [13][23]. Group 2: User Experience and Safety Concerns - The shift to touchscreens and hidden controls has led to usability issues, with drivers struggling to locate essential functions quickly, especially in emergencies [35][45]. - The article emphasizes that the automotive industry has historically prioritized safety, but recent trends may compromise this principle by prioritizing aesthetics over functionality [44][55]. - Regulatory bodies are beginning to respond to these concerns, with new safety requirements for physical buttons and controls being proposed [47][48]. Group 3: Future Directions - The article suggests a potential shift towards a hybrid approach, combining touchscreens with essential physical buttons to enhance safety and usability [56][57]. - It anticipates that by 2027, a balanced integration of technology and traditional controls will likely emerge, addressing both design and safety needs [58][59].
小登有分歧,老登在分化
远川研究所· 2025-11-07 07:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debate in the A-share market regarding the performance of technology stocks versus domestic demand stocks, highlighting the contrasting investment strategies and sentiments among fund managers [6][9]. Group 1: Technology Sector Insights - Fund managers benefiting from the tech bull market are beginning to advise against linear extrapolation of AI growth, suggesting a need for diversified investment strategies due to high valuations in the AI sector [9]. - The fund manager of China Europe Digital Economy reported a 79.11% net value growth in Q3, but cautioned investors about the risks of concentrated investments in high-valuation AI stocks [9]. - Michael Burry's significant short position on Nvidia and Palantir has raised concerns about the sustainability of AI stock valuations, with Palantir experiencing an 8% drop despite reporting record earnings [10][12]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Focus - Fund managers who missed the tech rally are increasingly focusing on domestic demand opportunities, particularly in the service sector, as they anticipate a recovery in consumer spending [15][16]. - Zhang Kun, a prominent fund manager, emphasized the long-term potential of China's domestic consumption market, despite facing challenges in performance due to heavy investments in traditional sectors like liquor [17]. - Some fund managers view real estate as a key area for domestic demand recovery, although the sector has not yet stabilized, leading to a cautious outlook on real estate investments [21][24]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article notes a shift in the real estate landscape, with new players emerging in the market and traditional leaders struggling, as evidenced by the land acquisition data from the first three quarters of the year [22][23]. - The upcoming earnings season is expected to reveal critical insights into the performance of AI and domestic demand sectors, with market sentiment likely influenced by macroeconomic factors during this period [27]. - The article concludes that both technology and domestic demand investors are at a pivotal moment, each waiting for their respective turning points in the market [28].
从运动到全景,智能相机掀起“影像革命”
远川研究所· 2025-11-06 13:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of China's smart imaging industry, focusing on two key players, Insta360 and DJI, and their impact on the global market for imaging devices, particularly in the context of video creation and social media sharing [5][21]. Industry Overview - The smart imaging industry has evolved from traditional photography to include new devices like action cameras and 360-degree cameras, driven by consumer demand for innovative recording tools [7][8]. - The market is currently transitioning from niche professional use to broader consumer adoption, with manufacturers exploring new applications in various sectors such as automotive, smart home, and education [20]. Key Players - Insta360 has successfully integrated panoramic technology into action cameras, creating a new market segment and focusing on user experience through innovative software and hardware solutions [24][25]. - DJI, initially a leader in drone technology, has entered the action camera market with products that leverage its existing imaging technology, quickly becoming a significant competitor [32][33]. Market Dynamics - The global shipment of smart cameras from the top three companies (Insta360, DJI, and GoPro) reached over 600,000 units in 2024, indicating a growing market despite still being in the early stages of penetration compared to traditional digital cameras [18][19]. - The competition between Insta360 and DJI has intensified, with both companies innovating rapidly and expanding their product lines to include various imaging solutions [40][41]. Future Trends - The smart imaging industry is expected to see continued innovation and competition, with potential developments in AI-powered devices and VR technology, indicating a shift towards more intelligent and interactive imaging solutions [41]. - The entry of smartphone manufacturers into the smart imaging space poses both opportunities and challenges, as they bring strong brand recognition and supply chain capabilities but may lack the specialized expertise required for high-performance imaging devices [44].
美团闪购,明抢电商?
远川研究所· 2025-11-06 13:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the e-commerce industry, particularly focusing on the rise of instant retail as a new growth area amidst increasing competition and changing consumer preferences. Group 1: Instant Retail Growth - The first day of this year's Double Eleven event saw Meituan's instant retail platform achieve over 300% year-on-year growth in transaction volume across more than 300 categories, with specific categories like milk powder, mobile phones, and liquor seeing increases of 152%, 189%, and 562% respectively [2][40] - Instant retail is becoming a significant market, with projections indicating that by 2030, the scale of instant retail in China could exceed 2 trillion yuan, with Meituan's flash delivery service emerging as a typical model [12][45] - Meituan's flash delivery has become the largest instant retail platform globally, with peak daily orders exceeding 27 million this year [28] Group 2: Brand Adaptation to New Channels - Many brands that traditionally operated online are now exploring offline channels, realizing that proximity to consumers is more complex and crucial than anticipated [6][34] - The rising customer acquisition costs for online platforms have led brands to seek new channels, with Alibaba's customer acquisition costs increasing twelvefold from 2017 to 2023 [11] - The "official flag flash warehouse" model introduced by Meituan aims to lower the costs for brands entering instant retail, allowing them to operate with minimal investment while maintaining proximity to consumers [36][37] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition among major players like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba in the instant retail space is intense, with each platform striving to enhance supply chain efficiency and consumer experience [3][39] - The shift in retail dynamics has led to a re-evaluation of traditional retail strategies, with brands needing to adapt to a new environment where efficiency and direct consumer engagement are paramount [34][46] - The article highlights that the instant retail model is not entirely new but is an evolution of previous retail experiments, emphasizing the need for platforms to innovate continuously [25][45]
激光雷达,命不由己
远川研究所· 2025-11-05 13:08
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debate between the use of LiDAR and pure vision systems in autonomous driving technology, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the LiDAR market as it seeks to penetrate mainstream automotive applications [6][8][15]. Group 1: Legal and Market Context - In August 2023, a court ruled that Tesla was one-third responsible for a fatal accident involving its Autopilot system, leading to a compensation of $243 million, raising questions about liability in autonomous driving [6]. - The debate over the necessity of LiDAR versus vision-based systems is intensified by incidents like this, with LiDAR gaining attention despite its low market penetration of less than 2% in passenger vehicles [8][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The price of LiDAR has dropped over 99% from 2014 to 2024, leading to a market dominated by Chinese companies, which now hold 95% of the market share [10]. - The market for passenger vehicle LiDAR only surpassed the L4 autonomous driving market in 2022, indicating a slow but steady growth trajectory for LiDAR adoption [10][12]. Group 3: Product Development and Cost Challenges - The introduction of the Hesai AT128 and other LiDAR products at competitive prices has made them attractive for mainstream electric vehicles, but the overall market size remains limited [13][15]. - Despite significant cost reductions, LiDAR remains expensive, primarily targeting high-end models, which limits its adoption in the broader market [13][15]. Group 4: New Entrants and Industry Shifts - LG Innotek's acquisition of over 180 patents from the defunct Argo AI signals a strategic move into the LiDAR market, reflecting growing interest from established players in the automotive sector [17][20]. - The entry of traditional automotive companies into the LiDAR space could disrupt the current market dynamics, as they seek to capitalize on the expanding demand for autonomous driving technologies [20][21]. Group 5: Customer Dependency and Market Risks - The dependency on a few major customers for revenue is a significant risk for LiDAR companies, with top clients contributing over 60% of revenue for leading firms [27][28]. - The shift towards self-developed LiDAR systems by automotive manufacturers poses a threat to existing suppliers, as seen with companies like XPeng and Huawei moving away from third-party LiDAR solutions [27][31].
在小红书,看见一万种细微需求
远川研究所· 2025-11-04 13:04
Core Insights - The "concert economy" has significantly boosted the hospitality industry, with Airbnb reporting a fivefold increase in accommodation bookings during the NCT WISH concert in Seoul and a sixfold increase during the Coachella music festival [2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Concerts on Travel - The demand for attending concerts abroad is driving a surge in young Chinese users on Airbnb, particularly from Generation Z [3][4]. - Airbnb has identified that many young travelers are not just tourists but are traveling specifically for concerts, exhibitions, and fan meetings [5][6]. Group 2: Role of Xiaohongshu - Xiaohongshu has become a crucial platform for Airbnb to connect with over 100 million Gen Z users, facilitating insights and outreach [3][12]. - Searches related to "concerts" on Xiaohongshu increased by 109% year-on-year in Q4 of last year, indicating a growing interest among young people [4]. Group 3: Specific User Needs - Users on Xiaohongshu often search for detailed and specific queries, such as "what insurance should a 30-year-old single woman buy," reflecting a trend towards more nuanced consumer needs [13][14]. - The rise in specific searches, such as a 490% increase in searches for "fluffy hair transplant," shows a deeper consumer motivation in the travel and lifestyle sectors [16]. Group 4: Market Growth and Opportunities - The service retail sector saw a 5.1% year-on-year growth from January to August, outpacing the growth of goods retail by 0.3 percentage points, highlighting the expanding opportunities in lifestyle services [17]. - The number of service providers on Xiaohongshu has increased significantly, with SPUs growing by 80% to 25,000 and merchant accounts increasing by 70% to 31,000 [20]. Group 5: Challenges in Service Industry - The service industry faces challenges such as non-standardized services and information asymmetry, making it difficult for consumers to make informed choices [22][23]. - As customer acquisition costs rise, businesses need to establish deeper connections with users, moving from quick sales tactics to long-term engagement strategies [24]. Group 6: Xiaohongshu's Unique Position - Xiaohongshu's dual recommendation and search capabilities allow for a more targeted approach to consumer engagement, with 80% of searches being longer phrases [12][13]. - The platform's community-driven nature fosters a unique environment for businesses to understand and meet specific consumer needs, leading to increased engagement and conversion rates [25][59]. Group 7: Case Studies of Success - Companies like Yifeng Moving have adapted their marketing strategies on Xiaohongshu to better resonate with their target audience, focusing on specific consumer pain points [32][34]. - "Shanzhu Imaging," a wedding photography studio, successfully leveraged Xiaohongshu to boost its brand visibility and sales, demonstrating the platform's effectiveness in driving business growth [39][42]. Group 8: Future of Business on Xiaohongshu - Xiaohongshu users, with an average monthly household income of 26,000 yuan, are highly engaged and willing to share their experiences, creating a fertile ground for various business opportunities [56]. - The platform's emphasis on detailed consumer insights and tailored content strategies positions it as a key player in the evolving landscape of lifestyle services [60][62].