国泰海通 · 晨报0627｜固收、军工

Group 1: Core Views - The article discusses the significant growth of credit bond ETFs, with a total scale of 106.6 billion yuan as of June 20, 2025, an increase of 77.7 billion yuan since the end of March, and 41.7 billion yuan since June [1] - The expansion of index constituent bonds is notably slower than the growth of credit bond ETF scales, indicating a potential undervaluation in constituent bonds [1][2] - The article highlights the impact of low valuation transactions on bond valuations, particularly the widening valuation gap between exchange-traded corporate bonds and comparable bank bonds [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the issuance of new science and technology bonds is primarily at low valuations, with an average coupon rate lower than the estimated average by 6 basis points [3] - It emphasizes that the secondary market's low valuation trend may extend to the primary market, suggesting potential opportunities in newly issued low-valuation science and technology bonds [3] - The article identifies two main lines for constituent bond exploration: bonds with a remaining term of over 5 years and those included in both the science and technology bond index and credit bond benchmark market [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that the demand for 3-5 year credit bonds is increasing due to the volume of credit bond ETFs, which may lead to a flattening of the yield curve and a narrowing of credit spreads for higher-rated bonds [2] - It recommends focusing on newly issued science and technology bonds with a low valuation of within -5 basis points, indicating potential for price appreciation [3] - The article indicates that the market for long-term science and technology bonds (over 5 years) is particularly attractive due to their larger scale and stable valuations [4]