独家洞察 | 美联储维持利率不变，关税与地缘局势成政策考验

Core Viewpoint - Despite the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged during the recent FOMC meeting, signaling a hawkish stance [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve announced on June 18 that the target range for the federal funds rate remains at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting where no action was taken [1]. - Since September of the previous year, the Fed has cut rates three times, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points [1]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the potential tariff policies from President Trump could lead to "significant" inflation risks, prompting a cautious approach in policy-making [3]. - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts of 25 basis points each are expected this year, consistent with previous forecasts [3]. - Economic growth expectations have been downgraded from 1.7% to 1.4%, while the unemployment rate forecast for 2025 has been adjusted from 4.4% to 4.5% [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Reactions - The Fed's semiannual monetary policy report highlighted that while short-term inflation expectations have risen due to tariff concerns, long-term expectations remain at pre-pandemic levels [4]. - The overall inflation rate in May was reported at 2.4%, with declining housing costs being a significant factor in controlling inflation [5]. - The dollar index has weakened this year, influenced by trade policy changes affecting investor sentiment towards the U.S. economic outlook [5]. - UBS's Chief Investment Officer for Greater China anticipates that the Fed may begin rate cuts in September, potentially leading to three cuts within the year, depending on economic and market conditions [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is being closely monitored by the Fed, with potential impacts on energy prices, although the long-term effects on inflation are expected to be limited [3]. - The tension in the Middle East has contributed to rising price pressures, further complicating the inflation landscape [5].