Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to return to a trend of oscillation and gradual rise as new policies are anticipated to be implemented by the end of June, which could break the current consolidation pattern [1] - The market is looking forward to incremental policies aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality economic development, with most measures expected to be in place by the end of June [1] - Short-term fluctuations are anticipated in popular sectors like banking and innovative pharmaceuticals due to accumulated gains, while TMT and technology growth sectors are expected to rebound from previous declines [1] Group 2 - In July, the A-share market is likely to experience event-driven thematic trading, with a high probability of sector rotation between high and low-performing areas [2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption is a key task for 2025, with sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical beauty expected to perform well [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is anticipated to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] - The domestic semiconductor industry is on the rise, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, semiconductor materials, and IC design [2] - The military industry is expected to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already visible in various sub-sectors [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a harvest period after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2025 [2] - The AI sector is poised for new catalysts, with significant updates from MiniMax indicating competitive advancements in AI models [2] Group 3 - The market has shown a healthy short-term oscillation, with the upward trend remaining intact despite minor fluctuations [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced a slight consolidation after breaking through March highs, indicating a potential accumulation phase [3] - Leading sectors include banking, telecommunications, military, social services, and oil and petrochemicals, while sectors like automotive, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, and steel have seen declines [3]
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申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部·2025-06-27 02:11