如何看待近期央行引导人民币升值︱重阳问答

Core Viewpoint - The recent guidance by the central bank to allow the appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by the weakening of the US dollar index and the improving macroeconomic conditions in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Central Bank's Actions - Since May, the central bank has gradually relaxed the fluctuation range of the USD/RMB exchange rate, lowering the middle rate to guide the RMB's appreciation. From May 9 to June 24, the USD/RMB middle rate decreased from 7.2095 to 7.1656, resulting in a cumulative appreciation of 439 pips for the RMB [1]. - The onshore RMB has appreciated nearly 700 pips, while the offshore RMB has appreciated about 650 pips during the same period [1]. Group 2: Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The central bank's guidance for RMB appreciation is largely due to the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, which has been influenced by the deteriorating fiscal situation of the US government and declining market confidence in the dollar [2]. - A recent Bank of America global fund manager survey indicated that the proportion of fund managers bearish on the dollar is nearing a 20-year high, suggesting that a weak dollar is becoming a consensus in macro trading this year [2]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The central bank's tolerance for RMB appreciation has increased, as macro policies in China have remained stable, and asset prices have begun to recover. The international trade situation has improved, allowing the central bank to gradually guide the RMB's appreciation [3]. - With the enhancement of Chinese enterprises' international competitiveness and the continuous introduction of growth-stabilizing policies, the attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to increase, making further RMB appreciation likely [3].