美元跌势到头了？华创证券警告：两大背离暗示反弹风险

Core Viewpoint - The narrative that the dollar will enter a prolonged decline akin to the 1970s-80s needs to be reassessed, as the fastest decline of the dollar may have already passed, and a rebound risk should be monitored in the coming months to a year [1][2]. Group 1: Long-term Trends of the Dollar Index - The dollar index has shown a long-term divergence from the U.S. economic share, with the latter declining while the dollar index has been on an upward trend since the 2008 financial crisis [3][4]. - The increase in the dollar index post-crisis is attributed to a combination of liquidity expansion and relatively weak economic performance in Europe and Japan, making U.S. Treasury bonds more attractive to foreign investors [4][5]. - Future analysis of the dollar index should focus on marginal changes in the U.S. economic share relative to Europe and Japan, as the nominal GDP growth in the U.S. is expected to remain competitive [5][6]. Group 2: Short-term Movements of the Dollar Index - Recent foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries does not fully explain the significant drop in the dollar index, indicating that other factors are at play [7][8]. - A substantial increase in foreign investors' hedging against currency exposure has led to a significant rise in short positions on the dollar index, suggesting that the current bearish sentiment may be overextended [8][9]. - The current low concentration of net short positions in the dollar index indicates a potential for a rebound, as historical patterns suggest that extreme positioning often precedes reversals [9][10].