多数不支持7月降息！美联储高官在“缄默期”后首度发声

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials indicate a need for further observation before confirming that tariff-induced price increases will not lead to sustained inflation, and they are not prepared to support interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Daly acknowledges increasing evidence that tariffs may not cause significant or sustained inflation, maintaining an open attitude towards potential rate cuts in the fall [2]. - Collins expresses a desire for more data before the July meeting, suggesting that any rate cuts would depend on the data, and she does not see an urgent need for cuts [3]. - Barkin emphasizes the need for clearer signals before adjusting rates, suggesting that the current strong economic backdrop allows for patience [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Inflation - The preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve rose by 2.1% year-on-year in April, slightly above the 2% target, while price growth has been slower than expected this year [2]. - The number of individuals applying for unemployment benefits has risen to the highest level since November 2021, indicating a potential issue in the labor market [2]. - Powell stated that without the uncertainty caused by tariffs, the Fed would have likely begun rate cuts based on declining inflation [4].