银行指数上涨，该止盈了么？｜第392期直播回放

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and valuation of the banking index, highlighting the cyclical nature of the banking industry and the factors driving its recent growth, including interest income, non-interest income, and risk provisions [1][5][10]. Group 1: Banking Index Performance - The banking index, represented by the China Securities Banking Index, has shown significant growth since the bear market of 2018, with a notable increase in value from 2019 to 2021, primarily driven by growth stocks [1][3]. - From 2013 to 2025, the annualized return of the China Securities Banking Index is projected to be 6.7%, increasing to 11.31% when considering dividends [14]. - The maximum drawdown of the index was 37.08%, occurring between June 8, 2015, and August 25, 2015 [15]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Banking Industry - The banking sector is characterized by strong cyclicality, with revenue derived from interest income, non-interest income, interest expenses, and risk provisions [5][10]. - Banks typically earn interest income by borrowing at a lower rate and lending at a higher rate, with the difference known as the interest margin [6][9]. - The overall profitability of banks is significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions, with performance improving during economic upturns and declining during downturns [11][12]. Group 3: Sources of Returns for Banking Index Funds - The three main sources of returns for banking index funds are: 1. Buying undervalued assets and benefiting from valuation (price-to-book ratio) increases [19][21]. 2. Growth in net assets, which has been a major driver of the banking index's long-term rise [25][26]. 3. Increased dividends and higher dividend yields, with recent policies encouraging higher dividend payouts from listed companies [28][31]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Strategies - The valuation of the banking index is best assessed using the price-to-book ratio, which has increased from 0.87 in May 2019 to 1.14 by June 2025 [22][44]. - Investment strategies for banking index funds include profit-taking based on yield or valuation, with a recommendation to consider selling when the yield reaches 30% or when the index is deemed overvalued [36][40]. - The current valuation of the China Securities Banking Index is considered normal to slightly high, suggesting caution in new investments [44].