利润修复的“波折期”？——5月工业企业效益数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in profits is primarily due to increased cost and expense pressures, with short-term profit recovery remaining highly uncertain [3][72]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In May, industrial profits saw a substantial year-on-year decline of 11.9 percentage points to 9%, driven by rising cost and expense pressures [3][72]. - The contribution of actual operating revenue to profit growth decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2 percentage points to 4.2%, contributing only 3.4% to overall profit growth [3][72]. - The overall revenue growth for industrial enterprises fell by 1.8 percentage points to 0.8% in May, with significant declines in sectors such as agricultural products, chemical fibers, and rubber plastics [49][74]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Profit Margin - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.9%, up 40 basis points year-on-year, with the coal and steel sector experiencing a notable increase in cost rates [17][72]. - The cost rate for the coal and metallurgy chain rose significantly, reflecting a recovery in upstream costs due to falling coal and steel prices, while downstream improvements were limited [17][72]. - The profit margin for industrial enterprises decreased, with a year-on-year drop of 10.1 percentage points, indicating heightened pressure on profitability [36][74]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - Inventory growth slightly declined, with nominal inventory down 0.4 percentage points to 3.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in demand recovery [59][74]. - Actual inventory, excluding price factors, also fell, down 0.1 percentage points to 7.0% year-on-year, suggesting a need for further demand improvement [59][74]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The coal and metallurgy chain's revenue growth turned negative, declining by 2.8 percentage points to -0.6% due to weak equipment updates and a slowdown in real estate infrastructure [4][73]. - In contrast, the consumer manufacturing chain saw a slight revenue increase, up 0.1 percentage points to 7.8% year-on-year, supported by domestic demand [4][73].