6月的美国市场：烈火烹油，鸡犬升天

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in market optimism, with the S&P 500 reaching a historical high, driven by a broad buying spree across various asset classes despite underlying economic uncertainties [1][4]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 3.4% this week, achieving a historical high, with the "Magnificent Seven" stocks leading the price movements [4]. - Junk bonds have increased for the fifth consecutive week, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by approximately 10 basis points [5]. - The U.S. dollar has fallen for the third consecutive week, reaching its lowest level since February 2022 [6]. - Gold has declined for the second consecutive week, while palladium has surged, marking its best week since October 2024 [7][9]. - Oil prices have plummeted, with WTI dropping nearly 13% this week, the worst performance since March 2023, erasing all premiums [10]. - Bitcoin has regained the $100,000 mark, achieving its best week in nearly two months, and Coinbase Global Inc. reached its first historical high since 2021 [11]. Investor Sentiment - Market participants are exhibiting complacency, with a notable shift towards risk assets, as retail investors return and systematic investors increase their risk exposure [3]. - Despite the prevailing optimism, there are signs of caution, with speculative bets in popular funds showing potential downside risks [19]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture, with consumer confidence reaching a four-month high, but other indicators such as new home sales and unemployment claims suggest a slowing labor market [15][17]. - JPMorgan and other institutions maintain a 40% risk of economic recession, citing concerns over tariff policies and weak consumer spending [14]. Market Dynamics - Volatility has subsided, leading to a fervent chase for risk assets, with indicators suggesting a potential buying spree not seen since 2004 [13]. - The article notes that the current market rally is driven by a narrow set of stocks, raising concerns about the sustainability of this upward trend [19].