国金高频图鉴 | “618”家电3C消费火爆&关注油价对通胀传导

Group 1 - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 started a week earlier than in 2024, leading to significant sales growth driven by government subsidies [3][5] - Total online retail sales during the "618" period reached nearly 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.8% [3] - Major platforms like Taobao Tmall, JD, Douyin, and Pinduoduo saw year-on-year sales growth of 4%, 17%, and 15% respectively [3] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has led to a surge in sales of home appliances and 3C digital products, with 113 brands achieving sales exceeding 100 million yuan [5] - An estimated 150 billion yuan of "old-for-new" funds were utilized from January to May, with additional central funds expected to be released in July and October [5] - The total "old-for-new" funds for the second half of the year are projected to be around 138 billion yuan, averaging 23 billion yuan per month [5] Group 3 - The proportion of second-hand housing sales in major cities has been increasing, with some cities reaching nearly 70% [8] - In June, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions was 58.2%, a 10 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [8] Group 4 - Recent tensions between Iran and Israel have impacted global oil prices, which saw a rise before a drop after June 20 [9] - Historically, a 10% increase in international oil prices has a direct impact of approximately 0.08 percentage points on domestic CPI and 0.5 percentage points on PPI [9]