【策略】2025年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升——策略周专题（2025年6月第4期）（张宇生/郭磊）

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with significant sector differentiation and a focus on internal demand and domestic policy catalysts [3][4][5][7][8]. Market Performance - A-shares closed higher this week, with major indices like the ChiNext and CSI 500 showing strong gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index lagged behind [3]. - The market exhibited an "N-shaped" trend in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.2% from the beginning of the year to June 27 [4]. - Sector performance varied significantly, with non-ferrous metals and banking sectors leading with gains of 18.0% and 13.5%, respectively, while coal and real estate sectors faced declines of 12.6% and 7.4% [5]. Fund Flows - The A-share market saw active trading in the first half of the year, with an average daily turnover exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [6]. - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of 1.6 billion yuan, while the issuance of equity funds rebounded significantly, surpassing 250 billion units [6]. Future Outlook - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with external risks potentially easing but still requiring vigilance regarding U.S. policies [7]. - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Domestic consumption, driven by policy support for expanding domestic demand 2. Domestic substitution, focusing on performance certainty and thematic investments 3. Sectors currently underweight by funds, which may see long-term interest due to regulatory changes [8].